Di Publish Pada Tanggal : Selasa, 20 Desember 2016 11:34 WIB

Jakarta Gubernatorial Elections, Who Will Win?

By : Kurniadi

The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) has released its latest survey showing that the electability of incumbent candidate pair Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama and Djarot Saiful Hidayat has increased by 5.6 percent, urportedly thanks to Ahok's change in attitude.

The survey, which was conducted from Dec. 3 to 11 and involved 800 participants, showed that the pair's electability in December reached 31.8 percent. The figure was higher than the LSI’s November findings in which the pair only garnered 26.2 percent.

The increase is believed to have occurred from voters returning their attention to Ahok’s personal qualities, as well as his work in the Jakarta administration, which has been ignored since he sparked uproar among conservative Muslim groups for his alleged blasphemous comment in relation to a Quranic verse during a work visit to Thousand Islands regency in September. Voters had started to focus on what matters again after Ahok changed his attitude, as well as apologized for his actions.

"The blasphemy case has definitely impacted the incumbent candidates, causing their electability to decline significantly," said said LSI executive director Kuskridho Ambardi on Thursday. "However, within a month, there has been a slight rebound [in their electability] [...] At least, the race has become competitive again."

The survey also showed that despite an increase in electability, Ahok was the least liked candidate. Ahok's likeability was at 54 percent, lower than rival candidates Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono and Anies Baswedan at 66 percent a piece.

Previously, Jakarta gubernatorial candidate Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono has said he is grateful to see the latest survey commissioned by a pollster showing him ranking first, followed by incumbent Jakarta Governor Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama and Anies Baswedan, who rank second and third, respectively. In its latest survey, Jakarta-based pollster Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) revealed that Agus and his running mate Sylviana Murni were favored by 33.6 percent of the respondents.

Ahok and his running mate Djarot Saiful Hidayat got 27.1 percent, while Anies and Sandiaga Salahudin Uno obtained 23,6 percent. The survey involved 440 respondents.

Meanwhile, other surveys conducted by several pollsters, including the Indonesia Politics Indicator, Poltracking and Charta Politika Indonesia, have also seen Agus replace Ahok as the frontrunner since the governor was named a blasphemy suspect on Nov. 16.

Whilst, Jakarta gubernatorial candidate Anies Baswedan and his running mate, Sandiaga Uno, plan to widely socialize their programs to residents by attending more debates on television to boost the pair's poor polling results.  The recent polls, conducted by Charta Politika, Lingkaran Survei Indonesia and Lembaga Survei Indonesia, showed that Anies and Sandiaga's electability was lagging behind incumbent Jakarta Governor Basuki "Ahok" Tjahaja Purnama and gubernatorial candidate Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.

"The number of undecided voters is still very high, and they want to see the issues brought up in the debates. For that reason, we plan to attend all TV debates to promote our programs," Sandiaga said in Recapital Building, South Jakarta, on Friday, admitting there are still a lot of Jakartans who do not know about his programs.

During the Kompas TV debate on Thursday, Anies and Sandiaga introduced their program to create 200,000 new entrepreneurs in the capital and provide more education assistance to residents.

They also criticized the current administration's performance, which according to them, had failed in mitigating the inequality, social disparity and poverty in the city. Sandiaga added that to attract more voters, he and Anies would continue to meet residents directly. "From the visits, we have concluded that residents want a new governor because the incumbent has caused disunity among people," he said.

Who will win?

The next Jakarta gubernatorial elections will be held on February 15th, 2014 and we have three couple candidate Jakarta governor such as Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono-Sylviana Murni, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama-Djarot and Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno.

Now, the Jakarta gubernatorial elections phase is a campaign, and we have an information from newspaper or television that all of Jakarta gubernatorial candidates has been promoting their ideas, programme and their style of leadership. So far as, every an essential campaign from three candidates are sound good and promising change in the quality of life Jakarta’s residents.

I think the result of research which has done by LSI or Charta Politika Indonesia were drew the reality of Jakarta’s public opinion. If Ahok didn’t have a blasphemy case, those the Jakarta governor “incumbent” would be won in the next Jakarta local elections.

Ahok’s trial process has been suplied Ahok’s image increase because Ahok and his law advisor’s has had a clear juridical thoughts or concept, so it will be a chance for Ahok’s to dismissed from these case. The big questions is if Ahok’s will win on trial process, can anti-Ahok’s group take this decision?   I think they will reject and it will start to be as a turbulent situations.

However, Ahok’s trial on a blasphemy case has been watching either in Jakarta or several countries will make a deep intention too, because it could be as a new era from tolerance spirit in Indonesia has been defending from the spirit of intolerance attacks.

I think Ahok’s case has a number of significant lesson learnt such as how must we do to defend our democracy and our law enforcement efforts from “an invisible hands” which would be interferenced it? Does Muslim’s society in Indonesia in generally and Muslim’s society in Jakarta particulary can take another-faith leader to be their leader? And last but not least do Muslim’s society in Indonesia will endanger if the national leadership will be ruled by non-Muslim’s leader? We must contemplation about it.

Finally, Ahok’s has still big chance to be next Jakarta governor, even he will be taken-down in the half of his tenure, if a trial process on blasphemy case will be blamed him.

The writer is a national political observer. Live in Ciamis District, West Java.

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