Di Publish Pada Tanggal : Rabu, 04 Januari 2017 19:23 WIB

Securities Threats And Optimism 2017

2016 marred by several incidents that affect the security situation. Some events that originate from intolerance, also affected Indonesia situation in 2016. Events in Tolikara, TanjungBalai and Bandung are the example of intolerance.

Exclusive and radical groups, most of which are the group that sympatic to the movement of ISIS, dominating the acts of terrorism in Indonesia. Events in Thamrin, Solo, Medan, Tangerang, and Samarinda, as well as preventive action by Detachment 88 in Majalengka, South Tangerang, Batam, Ngawi, Solo, Payakumbuh, Deli Serdang and other cities showed that the issues of terrorism in 2016 are still very strong. It is of course still affect the security situation in 2017.

Related to some events, the group which is usually often used models of mass action, especially street actions such as workers, tend to decline compared to previous years. Workers protest in 2016 was less popular and less attractive.

Terrorism and Intolerance Action

Terrorism action expected to remain strong in 2017. The weakening of the radical group ISIS in Syria and Iraq due to pressure from international groups was estimated will shift the power of ISIS to other regions. Some figures of ISIS who come from Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia will show its existence in order to show off his power and influence. It began in 2016 as the action in Thamrin, Solo, Tangerang, Medan and Samarinda are influenced by BahrunNaim, ISIS leaders from Indonesia. In 2017 this action is expected to be done (again) in Indonesia and other countries in Southeast Asia.

ISIS figures who come from Indonesia are expected to be or has been shifted to Southeast Asia with the prediction locations in Mindanao. If the security forces in Indonesia do not conduct operations in Poso, then it is likely going to be one of the headquarters of radical groups affiliated with ISIS.

Another threats related to thoseproblemare the reverse flow of ISIS sympathizers of the Syrian citizen. The possibility of the reverse flow can go directly to Indonesia and then forming cells of terror group or transit in other places like Mindanao to set up the power.

Model acts of terror in Indonesia will continue to change and adapt in order to trick the security apparat detection. This model has been put into use at the end of 2016 by using women as "brides" in planning suicide bombings. This certainly does not rule out the possibility to grow by using teenagers or children as a "tool" to carry out suicide bombings such as those in conflict areas in other countries. Control of terrorist acts will be done remotely from a distance even from other countries with the help of technologies such as the internet.

In addition to terrorism, acts of intolerance attracted much attention in 2016. Events like Tolikara and Tanjung Balai in 2016 to watch out so as not to be a model that will occur in 2017 with a different place.

Free space to the sectarian and radical groups should be limited. Assertiveness of government against sectarian groups and radical groups that tend to be intolerant is expected to prevent the seeds of terrorism in Indonesia.

Politic Conflicts

Political activities in 2017 will focus on the elections simultaneously in February. Democratic Party that will happen in 101 areas is expected to influence the security situation in Indonesia.

The elections in Jakarta, which became the center and highlights for many parties, cannot be separated from security issues. The business world would be very concerned about this security issue. Concurrent election in 2017 is starting to look as an impact on security in Jakarta in the second half of the 2016. The election in Jakarta becomes more dynamic and prone because of their controversial figure,BasukiTjahajaPurnama allegedly committing blasphemy.
Other areas that could be disrupted in security related to political activities such as the simultaneous election in West Papua, Aceh and Banten are warrant concern. Allegedly primordial issues will emerge as the trigger of electoral conflicts.

Election rules that could be two rounds will make security-related concerns become increasingly longer. Two rounds of local elections will make the final round of a battle between the two camps. This will create a polarization pretty vulnerable as a source of conflict.

Political activity must be kept on track and does not turn into a battle between camps that could be the starting point of division and conflict. The influence of the political dynamics in Jakarta, which could lead to polarization will be an inspiration for other groups in the area.

Governments need to be aware of the areas that have the vulnerability of the power of the security forces. Jakarta has enough power of the security forces. It is not expected to be a target for players of conflict. However, the issues in Jakarta will serve as a model and inspiration as an ingredient for action in the area.
Political objectives in 2017 election are become a momentum for the players of the conflict. The players are expected to throw the issue of conflict of religion and race as a trigger to form a polarization period so as to create camps facing each other.

Politics will moves as the interest to becomes a tool for the characters to achieve the goals. But not to place the goal becomes a threat to national unity.

Keeping Indonesia Safe

There are several keys to keeping Indonesia remains safe and peaceful. The government must be firm to cover the space of sectarian and radical. Freedom and space for sectarian groups and radicals have become the chances of intolerant acts, the threat to the existence of the ideology of Pancasila, and their acts of terror. It is not an estimate only but is already happening in Indonesia, particularly related to acts of terror committed by radical groups affiliated with ISIS and groups that reject Pancasila as the state.

Affirmative action that government has to do is dissolve the organization that led to the sectarian, radical and threatening the nation's ideology. In addition to disperse, the government needs to be firm that organizations that opposed to the ideology of Pancasilaare outlawed. With this, the government can firmly give legal action to the members of the group as a deterrent.

Banned organization which threatens not only the ideology of Pancasila but also potential organizations that committed treason or wish to secede from Indonesia. Rigor to further disperse should be followed by raising and re-directing members of the group to return to the Pancasila ideology embraced mandatory for citizens of Indonesia.

The government needs to take steps against those continuous or groups of radicals. The involvement of religious institutions and communities to embrace people with radical understanding needs to be done.

Efforts to stem the spread of radical understanding through mass media and social media need to be prevented and combated. In this case, the government assertiveness is needed primarily to cover the sites and content on the Internet that contains a radical narrative.

Former inmates of terrorism cases must be nurtured and embraced so that they do not return to action of terror. Efforts to make a special correctional institution for terrorists need to be supported. It is intended that the government through BNPT could do de-radicalizationwith more focused and targeted. If inmates terrorism became one with inmates of other cases, the greater the possibility of mobilization and radicalization that radical groups actually got "ammunition" and "force" for the group.

Terrorism can be prevented among others by cutting off the flow of funds and overseeing the movement of radical groups by monitoring the presence and communications made between members of radical groups. It must been done by the government, but the limitations of government need to offset with other efforts such as the fusion of information between institutions relating to terrorism. In order to do that,it needs to be a system of fusion of information from agencies such as PPATK for the analysis of financial transactions, Immigration for monitoring the presence of people, BIN, Intelligence Police Agency, BAIS TNI, and of course the religious institutions and the community.

The most important thing to prevent terrorism in Indonesia is to teach tolerance and peace to young people early on. With the strong attitude of tolerance and peace, then the younger generation is not easily influenced to be invited to carry out acts of terror, especially with the promise of heaven as a reward if you carry out suicide bombings. Tolerance and peace should be exemplified by example especially from the political elite, religious leaders and other public figures are role models for society.

Society needs to strengthen the "radar" social. Advances in technology should be utilized to strengthen the mutual society so it will bring up positive social force. Do not let the advancement of technology make even more individualist society so that the "radar" social blunt. Insensitivity on social phenomena will simplify and make room for certain parties to disrupt security.

Government with civil society organizations should unite with the community to strengthen the nation's noble values ​​such as mutual cooperation, tolerance, and diversity. Understanding the difference as a nation need to experience the power of massively against the movement that carries the difference as a threat.

Conclusion

Governments and citizens must remain optimistic that Indonesia will remain safe in 2017 and subsequent years. Lessons learned in 2016 should be the subject of study to undergo 2017.

The split should not happen, the government must be supported by the citizen. The existence of the nation with the Pancasila ideology becomes the main thing to be proud and respected rather than foreign cultures and ideologies. Citizens should be the focus of that unity is a major issue that should be pursued. Ignore those who brought the issue of "transfer issue" to deflect the focus of the threats to the nation's existence.

Strong community support to the government, tolerance while respecting the beliefs of others, uphold the unity, and understanding diversity as unity will bring Indonesia remains optimistic that the security-related threats in 2017 could well be faced with.

By: Stanislaus Riyanta,alumnus of the Graduate Studies in Strategic Intelligence, University of Indonesia, live in Jakarta.

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